2008 is going to be a rough up and down year of adjustment for most of the world's economies. The economic situation in most of the world is going to be rather good after that. But, the United States Economy is going to suffer in the near future, and be hurt even worse by stagflation in five or six years!
What do you think?
cnnek
I think ...
... it's great to have you posting a blog again, cnnek - you've been absent from TDG for a long time!
I don't understand money markets to any great extent, not having very much to invest in them. My opinion, however, is that things are going to get much worse before the trend reverses, and many people are going to be very hurt financially during this period of time. This is going to cause a big lifestyle change for those who have become used to having large amounts of money to spend on things they don't need, but somehow seem to think define who they are as people.
Perhaps in the long run, the bad situation that is going to happen may have unexpectedly beneficial effects as people have to get back to a life that is less material and more filled with the things that really matter.
Regards, Kathrinn
Especially For The Very Wealthy,...
You might be right about things getting very bad, relative to their present circumstances, accross the board. But, the U.S. is going to get hurt far worse than any other country. But, it will hasten the development of an economy that is truely a global economy. Bearing in mind that the U.S. Dollar is no longer the world's default currency and that there are many alternative export markets, I think that after a rough year in 2008, when adjustments will have to be made, things will start getting better for most of the world. That being said, I agree that wastefull spending practices are going to be drastically altered by this situation.
It's nice to be posting again! Sometimes I get so snowed under by things that I don't have time to do anything but read. Remember that for one fingered typists it takes much longer to post!:)
What do you think?
cnnek
{You Can Teach People How To Think Or What To Think; But, You Can't Do Both! It Is Better To Teach People How To Think!!!}
Sorry, cnnek!
Being a touch-typist I forget how difficult it is for others not so fortunate - you do great! My keyboard is over 20 years old and has been used so much that most of the letters have been worn off the keys - this would make it very difficult for a lot of other people to use I guess!
Keep posting - it's good to have you back.
Regards, Kathrinn
two theories
Let me offer two theories. Before I start, let me emphasize that I don't believe either one, this is just for fun, and to perhaps provoke more reasonable thought than these theories. Or people can just ridicule me, your choice :)
Here we go.
Theory A:
The US economic slowdown are due to the press talking about the US economic slowdown. This first part is actually serious - small investors, and small financial managers. The small financial managers panic, and it translates up to the top. Your local bank manager, with 250 customers, is not that smart.
But now for the conspiracy part. Cui bono is always a good question.
Perhaps it makes the presidential elections more interesting in the US. If the Iraq war is the only issue, then the elections are boring. When you talk up other stuff, it gets more interesting. So it could be the media, or the Republicans, who are behind this. Some influential media (CNN, MSBNC, Jim Lehrer[PBS]) really don't like the Republicans now. So they might want to make the current government look really bad.
And the Republicans don't want too much attention on Iraq.
Theory B:
Suppose the US economy tanks in a serious way. If you don't live in the US, your reaction might be "so what, I don't like those guys anyway, serves them right".
Consider the consequences. Germany, China, Japan, Mexico, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and many other places make a significant part of their money from trading with the US.
Say China suffers economically, and the separatist there (Tibet, Muslim parts, and also just reasonable people) gain influence, and China starts to fall apart. Japan suffers, so does Taiwan, and South Korea.
What happens if China falls apart? I think even China's real enemies are afraid of that. Not to speak of the enemies that China's rules only imagine.
But honestly, I don't believe that. It is just a progression of thoughts, starting with unlikely things, and getting more unlikely at every step.
Don't panic :) <-----
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wherever you go, there you are
Well I DO panic!
That's one of the many downfalls of globalization. The economic effects of one nation have effects on others. And since the US is, as earthling rightly pointed out, he biggest partner of many nations, if the US enter a recession it will be harshly felt on those countries aswell.
For me this problem arises from two factors:
a)A very long and expensive war, and
b)The careless pursuit of disposable pleasures by consumers with no sense of what saving is. This, of course, is a global tendency.
Of course, this is a very complex phenomenon, and earthling is right to point out that the markets fluctuate depending on fears, whether unfounded or not.
My dad is pressing me to buy a new car, and I really REALLY don't think this is such a good time to attain that kind of economic obligation. On the other hand, this year my car turns 8, and according to the new laws I won't be allowed to use my car if there's an enviromental contingency (that's when there's too much smog in the air) so...
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It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me...
It's all the rabbit SH*T you stumble over on your way down!!!
Red Pill Junkie
Wow!
Pleased I don't live in Mexico - my car is 27!!! Guess they'd never allow me to use it!
Regards, Kathrinn
cars and climate
I used to have a car that was almost as old as I was, when I was in my 30s. Eventually I got too scared - it would go pretty fast, but didn't really have brakes, and no seat belts. And I Wanted to survive into my 40s.
Last fall I did my part in combating global warming. I broke down and bought a convertible (a car with a retractable roof, for the non-car people).
Consequently, we are having the coldest winter in decades in Canada.
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wherever you go, there you are
I Don't Believe Them Either!:) But,...
There is an element in the second theory that needs to be considered regardless of the fate of the U.S. Economy. China has been in danger of breaking up into atleast ten countries for a long time. And, this scares everyone including the Chinese. The Chinese themselves, China Proper, could easily break-up into atleast three separate countries!
China has markets all over the world and is not so dependent on the U.S. Economy that a recession in the U.S. would do serious damage to the Chinese Economy. But, major economic progress and growth are essential to maintaining a unified China in the long run. And, a recession in the U.S. could slow the growth of the Chinese Economy to 5% in the short run!
What do you think?
cnnek
{You Can Teach People How To Think Or What To Think; But, You Can't Do Both! It Is Better To Teach People How To Think!!!}
minds and stuff
Perhaps am important factor is that the Chinese leadership is paranoid and that separatists are really after them?
I think the Chinese leadership, or in other words the communist party, is protecting their own butts. If this system breaks down, they are in deep guano. Nevermind the country, it is their own lives.
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wherever you go, there you are
That's True; But,...
No one benefits from the break-up of China! And, millions of innocent people could get killed. Furthermore, relative to the growth that China needs, 5% growth is just barely sufficient!
It does not suprise me that you don't really like the Chinese leadership; but, they are doing a very good job with the Chinese Economy!
What do you think?
cnnek
{You Can Teach People How To Think Or What To Think; But, You Can't Do Both! It Is Better To Teach People How To Think!!!}
liking the Chinese government
Well, to be honest, whether I like the Chinese governemnt or dont like it, that is not important. They are not very likable people, in my view. I think they are organized crime, an organized company that is controlling 20% of the world population. Control is their religion, and according to Mao, control comes out of the barrel of a gun. Like the Mafia, it is not personal, just business.
My guess is that the good economy in China is a method to stay in control. A few million victims dont count much, compared to a few dozen Communist Party leaders.
But really, what I believe about this does not matter very much.
What matters is what the people inside China's reach believe. And if a significant percentage of them don't want that government, then .....
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wherever you go, there you are
I Agree!
A good economy in China is a way to stay in control. But, it is also a way to keep China from breaking up. In the long run, I think that a good economy, along with an educated population, will hold China together. I also think that it will erode the power of the Communist Party in China, and that a multi party system will evolve. Trust me, it may take another 30 years for them to get into power; but, for the educated youth in China and Asia in general, it isn't going to be business as usual.
What do you think?
cnnek
{You Can Teach People How To Think Or What To Think; But, You Can't Do Both! It Is Better To Teach People How To Think!!!}
not just China
Sure the Chinese government wants to keep control. But also the countries and companies they trade with them want a reliable partner.
From a moral point of view, is there a reason that China should be one country? I don't know, and my best guess for the answer is "No". But that is not for me to decide, it is up to the locals. Many millions of locals, at that.
How about Quebec, Texas? California would make a good country by itself.
What is so good about these massive nation states?
And then there is the adage tha I cannot translate properly - "Erst kommt das Fressen, dann die Moral".
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if everything is under control, you are not going fast enough (Mario Andretti)
The Reasons Are Practical!
Although many of them have great merit, morals are subjective and, in many cases, abstract concepts that, at times, hurt many more people than they help. For former U.S. President, it was a morally acceptable consequence to bankrupt the U.S. farmer with his morally correct grain embargo on exporting grain to the U.S.S.R., and to destroy the hopes and dreams of the 1980 U.S. Olympic Athlets with his morally correct boycott of the 1980 Moscow Olympics. Personally, I don't think that the Former U.S. President was morally correct in either case.
As the world economy evolves into a one world economy, large units will be necessary in order maintain stability in my opinion.
What do you think?
cnnek
{You Can Teach People How To Think Or What To Think; But, You Can't Do Both! It Is Better To Teach People How To Think!!!}
What IS a good economy?
Sure, everybody is talking about the "chinese miracle", about how the chinese are replacing their bikes for BMWs. But the sad realiy of it all is that only a very VERY reduced number of peoples are benefitting from the economic changes that have been established in China. The same thing has happened in countries like Brazil, whish is now the 4th economy in the world if I'm not mistaken, but that nevertheless still has millions of people living in horrible shanty towns called favelas.
And the same thing is happening in Mexico too, BTW. The third richest man in the world is a mexican —Carlos Slim— but that's because everyhting in Mexico is run by monopolies, so the consumer has no choice to find a better deal with another provider of goods or services.
2000 have passed, but sometimes it feels as if there hasn't been any real changes in countries like China or Mexico, where the majority of the people struggle to live day by day, while a small elite act as if they were descendants of the gods themselves...
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It's not the depth of the rabbit hole that bugs me...
It's all the rabbit SH*T you stumble over on your way down!!!
Red Pill Junkie
start at the bottom
Well, a "good" economy should be one where everyone has enough to eat. And decent housing, suitable for the climate.
So that makes it easier for governments in tropical places - who needs a house there? Just something to keep the rain out, or so the northerners think.
All the western countries seem relatively safe in that minimalist view. Yes there are homeless people, but how many of them are skinny because they can't afford food? How many of them are fat, when they say they cannot afford food?
And how does that compare to China and India?
I wish we had some Chinese and Indians to discuss this with.
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if everything is under control, you are not going fast enough (Mario Andretti)
The U S of Ail
Hello, why is everybody talking China here ? How austrich is that ? Mainland China has been integral for thousands of years, sure there asymetrical growth at the moment, but the Chinese dealt with that before. At the moment it's the Chinese that keep the US afloat, not only because of trading but the Olympics are a big event for them, a planet in turmoil as backdrop would ruin the party. Now come september thats all over and China will likely feel assertive and start using that enormous -1 trillion dollar surplus to buy what suits them, or else dump the dollar itself.
Earthling makes a point that many countries -not just China have extensive trade with the US, however a collaps in demand will certainly hurt parts of the economy but not as much, because most, if not more than the money that's made, has been pumped back into the US economy and this obviously would grind to a halt too. Bottomline those economies would shrink but when the US part is factored out they would likely grow as savings no longer get sifoned off to the US, as has happened these past decades. This proces has left the US with a 10 trillion dollar debt, it's citizens add another 8 trillion, money they'll never repay. Therefore the FEDs current policy of floating ever bigger sums of virtual money into the system is geared to create inflation..lessen the value of the dollar/debt. A risky policy, as long as worldtrade stays denominated in dollars, they will be able to buy/print for 'free' oil and other minerals. At the moment the euro or other valuetations systems emerge, the US will sink in deep doo doo and is, far more likely then China, to fall apart, for the simple reason there will be no synergy left in the United part of the States. Obviously the militairy will be key to a peaceful solution, dividing the overkill of weaponry thats been piled up over the decades.
I think the future for the US looks bleak, as tentcamps start springing up around cities, people will no longer be able to shut their eyes for the consequences of an economic policy that favors the few and leave the bill for others to pay. It's no surprise to me that these last years the US has put much effort in developping crowdcontrol systems, they are for domestic use, and the 200 camps that have been set up across the country with a nominal capacity of 4 million 'enemies of the state/elite' are clear indications that the ruin of the US is a planned exercise by....what i for this moment will call NWO stooges.
A Man Can Not Begin To Learn That Which He Thinks He Already Knows (Epictetus)
some other numbers
The biggest trading partner of the US is Canada. About 1 million dollars per minute.
California has a larger economy than Italy.
I have been travelling across the eastern US for a good part of the last 3 months - didn't see any tent camps. Just normal cities. And the price of gasoline, critical to such a mobile economy, was still lower than in Canada.
Another thing about numbers - China manufactures a lot of what the world consumes. And the workers there don't really get paid for it. That is part of the communist system. If you want to find workers to exploit, go to the communists.
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if everything is under control, you are not going fast enough (Mario Andretti)
People
Hello Earthling, no doubt Canada will hurt, but then its mineral resources are huge, so the Canadian dollar will keep rising as Canadians go shopping at Walmart across the border. No tent camps in the freezing north east these past 3 months ? Hardly surprising, as it happens to be the oldest/established and richest sector. As for gas prices , so it's taxed in Canada. California too has a strong 'own'economy, yet currently 50,000 live in tent camps in the LA area, evicted people that lost their homes and are left with debts they wont get under from as the law -forseeing all this- has been changed a few years ago.
As for Chinese being underpaid , thats all relative, lots of ordinairy american families need two or three jobs to pay their bills. The chinese worker has different standards, 20 years ago there were a billion of dirt poor have nothing Chinese, they see progress around them, sure things arent rosy all around but theirs is a very different culture/mindset then here in the west. As for communists ? The jewish/ashkenazis bolsjewiks have left the sovjet union for richer pickings in the USA. The Chinese / Asians in general have always had a more communal way of life, so communism is just another label to them.
So tell me Earthling what about these preperations..this law i just mentioned, the camps, the new weaponry for crowd control, do you think they've come about as coincidence ?
A Man Can Not Begin To Learn That Which He Thinks He Already Knows (Epictetus)
crowd control and such
Since you spefically asked about the crowd control weapons, I think that is because the US military wants to be politically correct. There is serious pressure on them to not hurt civilians. So they develop weapons that are less deadly. They want to be able to sell wars as being relatively clean.
There is supporting evidence for this. Their targetting methods are getting more accurate, so that they can hit what they want to blow up. Or if you are cynical about this, they can at least claim that they hit what they aimed at, and not much else. They want to be able to project US power, that is their job. But they want to be seen as being friendly and clean in doing that. Now that is probably not very convincing if you on the receiving side of this power projection. It's also not convincing if you disagree with the power projection business as an American, But for the military, it makes sense.
As for the tents, or lack thereof in the Eastern US, I was actually travelling up and down the east coast, Florida on the one end, Connecticut on the other. And some more interior places as well. No tent cities that I saw.
People have been living in shacks and tents in the Canyons in California for decades. Mostly illegal immigrants sure. I don't know about the 50,000 around greater LA, that's possible, so I take your word for it. Greater LA has about 15 million people.
I have seen people begging in the street in San Diego. In recent years, most of them were wealthy kids who financed their drug consumption that way, their parents would not give them money for drugs. How do I know that? The kids told me. Sure there are genuine homeless people there too, it is easy to tell the difference.
You bring up other interesting points. Like the privatization of Russian organized crime, formerly known as the KGB and the government. I thought they went mostly to Western Europe, into the football business and other stuff, as opposed to the US. But perhaps they are just more quiet in the US.
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if everything is under control, you are not going fast enough (Mario Andretti)
I'm In General Agreement With You! But,...
I live in Japan, and the China question is a serious issue here in Japan, as well as, in Asia in general. Because of the cultural, ethnical, language, and dialect differences between the people in China, it would be very easy for China to fall apart. For example, the pronunciation of Kanji varies greatly in both China and Japan. Given the improving economic situation in China, nobody thinks that it's going to fall apart. But, everybody is afraid of it happening! It's sort of like the Cold War, especially the 1950's and 1960's. I still remember the nuclear bomb drills that we had at my elementry school in the 1950's. We would evacuate the school and go and hide in a earthen ditch half filled with kudzu behind the school. Nobody really thought that we would have a nuclear war; but, everybody was afraid of it. And, like China breaking up, it was a real possibility! If you don't believe me, ask another early baby-boomer!
What do you think?
cnnek
{You Can Teach People How To Think Or What To Think; But, You Can't Do Both! It Is Better To Teach People How To Think!!!}
Bretton Woods And It's Evolution!
The Bretton Woods Monitary Conference was held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire in 1944. Today, international monitary policy in guided by what is called Bretton Woods III. To understand today's economic situation it would help to study the history of Bretton Woods, and the evolution of Bretton Woods. It would also be enlightening to study the proposals of John Maynard Keynes that were rejected at Bretton Woods, as well as, the reasons that he made them!
Since Greg would not appreciate it if I wrote 50 to 100 page blog response to my own blog, I have merely decided to suggest that you research this. [Greg, you can thank me later for keeping this short!:)] Just type in "Bretton Woods System" on your search engine. Google, Yahoo, Look Smart, and MSN are the best engines for this.
What do you think?
cnnek
{You Can Teach People How To Think Or What To Think; But, You Can't Do Both! It Is Better To Teach People How To Think!!!}